June 13, 2004
Going Clubbing
The nuclear club prefers invitation only...
As Iran faces increasing internal dissent and decline both short and long term, the focus of Iran on joining the nuclear club is combatting internal political entropy.
Regimes in trouble often focus attention outside, rather than within. In the case of Iran's nuclear ambitions, the natural opposition of the rest of the world to Tehran's efforts creates a natural us-versus-them mindset that can tend to ease internal divides, as long as negative attentions can be focused on perceived outside meddling in domestic policies and efforts.
Globally, the world is getting caught flat-footed. With an election in the US and an Iraq that is still tenuous, the natural tendency for the US to provide leadership has been disappointingly muted. The simple fact is that introducing nuclear weapons into the Persian Gulf and terrorist sponsoring nations is likely the worst possible event in a world full of imaginable disasters.
The Israelis will not tolerate the bankrollers and puppetmasters of Hezbollah to go nuclear. The US knows this. Israel knows we know this, and we know Israel knows. Since everyone knows, the natural result will be inevitable US action against said facilities unless obscenely strict inspection protocols are met with 100% satisfaction. The US would rather take action itself, and take the international heat, than let the Israelis do it and destabilize the region. But Tel Aviv has clearly indicated to Washington that it cannot tolerate a weaponized nuclear capability in Tehran.
The rubicon is approaching...
Posted by MEC2 at June 13, 2004 10:18 AM