August 25, 2004
Poll Vaulting
The finals are in November, these preliminary heats aren't telling us much...
While a new LA Times poll shows President Bush vaulting ahead in the polling horse race, the jelloshaking numbers don't yet really tell us anything too predictive about the future.
Polling has become a national obsession. We admit to being addicted to Dale's Electoral College Breakdown, the best state polling compendium on the web, though we are always disturbed by his against-the-grain color choice. But at this stage, we are just shaking jello in the mold - nothing is really moving to a position it's going to hold just yet.
While the Times, often not a credible independent news source, does paint a harsh picture for Kerry, it also fails to account for the realities of voter behavior. For instance, their latest poll shows Bush capturing 15% of Democrats. Which is substantial, but party faithful tend to return to the flock as election day closes and as local races and candidates move their votes toward a straighter ticket.
The Times then reports Kerry has good news, as they report that the five percent of voters who are undecided are overwhelmingly negative on the direction of the country, Iraq, and Bush's policies. So, the good news is that people who think the country is heading to hell in a handbasket, who don't like Bush's policies and think Iraq is a big mess, that these people are undecided is good news? What's the issue to tip them over the edge, pictures of Bush at an annual puppy-drowning? That Kerry can't close these voters should be a concern, not a confidence.
The important number is job approval - and Bush is in the shallow end of the safe pool. With the Republican convention coming, the polls will start to shake out about two weeks afterward. Polls prior to the convention are extraordinarily volatile. Expect to get a good feel for the race at the end of September.
Until then, you're betting on qualifying heats where nobody shows their true stripes...
Posted by MEC2 at August 25, 2004 08:46 PM