The Art of Politics

Poll Position

Weren't polls one of the plagues of Pharoah?

Just when the Kerry campaign felt they could pull the covers back down from over their head, Gallup comes out with a whopper sure to put a scare into them.

Following some questionable Pew and Harris results - showing a dead heat when not even the Kerry people believe it - this poll seems far too high for the President. This is a true post-convention bounce poll - no Democrat is going to poll just 40% at the polls, even Walter Mondale got that in 1984. With turnout models and likely voter screening being scattershot, these polls are going to be all over the place.

Let's cut to the chase. The President is at a six point lead - where we predicted the final result would be. Barring any remarkable turn of events, this will be where the election ends up, around 52-46 or 51-45. State polling shows the available pool of battleground states is shrinking on Kerry, and the new battlegrounds are ones he didn't want to worry about - such as Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. Now that states like Iowa, Minnesota, and New Jersey are close, Kerry's team has to watch these states closely, and may need to make stops and spend money in states they wanted to carry on Democrat tendencey coattails.

For any candidate, the polls are rarely as good as they look, or as bad as they look...

Posted by MEC2 at September 16, 2004 11:24 PM