September 30, 2004
Why Bush Won
It's not what you might think...
The post debate spinmills are running full tilt, but what was otherwise a decent though at times blase' debate gave Bush more than Kerry. While Kerry will be energized at having perhaps avoided a knockout, and from an uneven and uninspired performance from the President, it's Bush that has some stones for his sling.
What happens in the days following a debate are as important as the debate itself. Kerry can continue on message, decrying the Iraq war and questioning the President's handling of it. But nothing Bush said in the debate gives Kerry a new handle, nothing new to swing back at the President.
On the other hand, a few of Kerry's statements are sure to appear in the Bush stump speech and in a Bush/Cheney commercial coming to a screen near you. First and foremost will be Kerry's words about a "global test" - this is a typical Kerry statement, full of nuance and senatorial aplomb that is an outright political stinker. Bush nailed him on it during the debate, and you'll see this replayed over and over.
To a lesser degree, Kerry's statement on giving nuclear fuel to Iran is both preposterous and dangerously naive, considering it sounds eerily reminscent of the policy tack used with North Korea. This doesn't have the sexy quick savvy of the "global test" line though, it's more grist for the deeper mills of talk radio or political junkie discourse. More of the same is Kerry's pledge to unilaterally stop researching low-yield deep-penetration nuclear weapons - this smacks of the nuclear freeze, and argues for a political moral equivalence between US nuclear goals and Iranian ones. Again, not the quick, easy to swallow bitesized morsel of "global test", but on a deeper level it reinforces a negative stereotype Kerry has had to overcome, that of a Cold War accomodationist and unilateral disarmer.
In the debate itself, Kerry demonstrated an even keel and good command of issues, and a decent temperment, but never really swung for the fences. Bush had a far more uneven performance, hitting big shots but then seeming adrift and repetitive at times. But there likely won't be Bush quotes on upcoming Kerry commercials, whereas there will definitely be a "global test" ad coming to a small screen near you.
Kerry gave President Bush more rope that he didn't tie off, but that will be noosed for Kerry in the next few days...
Posted by MEC2 at September 30, 2004 11:37 PM