The Art of Politics

Overcompensation

Why Bush must throw controlled punches in Round Two, having performed poorly in Round One...

When a batter misses on a pitch, sometimes he swings wildly on the next one to compensate for the one that got by him. When a fighter thinks he's behind, he often comes out swinging wildly, knowing he needs to land big blows to catch up. The President must avoid this in tonights debate.

First, the President still leads this race by some three solid points. Kerry's debate performance helped both with his base and with momentum voters, voters who will go with whoever has had the most recent positive news. But there is still a slight advantage the President retains, and it's an advantage that is going to be hard for Kerry to break through, because these voters cling harder to their choice.

Second, the first debate will fade from memory once the second debate occurs - especially if it's a strong, even debate, or if one of the candidates makes a major gaffe. The President would do well to not turn a first debate problem into a second debate problem.

The worst thing the Bush campaign can do is to overprep the President, or insist on aggression. Bush isn't a very good actor, but he is an effective motivator of his own emotions and basic positions. If he comes out trying to swing for a home run on every question, he'll end up all over the place. Rather, if he let's the pitches come to him, he'll find his groove and hit his own home runs.

For Kerry's part, more of the same - but pull back from some of the criticism and offer a positive conclusion to his positions. Kerry need not reiterate that Iraq is a problem to voters who agree with him, he must provide a vision of victory that is more than "How can I possibly do worse". He must offer "I know what it takes, and as your President, will confidently lead us there".

That is what Kerry needs to shake loose low-hanging fruit from Bush's support...

Posted by MEC2 at October 8, 2004 07:35 PM