The Art of Politics

Survivor

Both candidates get something from the debates...survival...

In the third and final Presidential debate, both President Bush and Senator Kerry had hits and misses, and survive to play in the final episode to see who gets voted off the island.

There is much mixed punditry on the debate - the Fox News analysts all called it a win for Bush, including Bill Kristol, who has been very hard on the President's performance. The MSNBC crew was decidedly less equivocal - Joe Scarborough called it a tie, but noted that the President came across better to middle American voters on the personal side. Howard Fineman didn't seem to want to pick a side, having seen post-debate wisdom spun out by post-debate polls that are heavily West-coast biased due to time.

While Kerry consistently singled in the game, the President swung hard several times. Seeing as many were likely watching the Boston/New York game, allow this analogy - Bush scored more runs on fewer hits, Kerry scored fewer runs on more hits. Bush seemed to improve the longer the debate went on - Kerry's countenance was very butleriffic.

Bush's best moments were on - abortion, where Bush finally laid out a cogent statement that people on both sides can come to reasonable agreements on abortion, which Kerry opposed - taxes, where he offered that he cut taxes including lower rates, higher child care credits, and reducing the marriage penalty, which Kerry opposed - and on personal questions, where Bush is at his sentimental, personable best.

Kerry was at his best talking about jobs, which spanned several questions, including accusing the President of just walking "on by" the problems of the unemployed. Kerry was also effective talking about markets and overseas competition - and was honest about outsourcing.

On the flip side, Kerry's constant stream of numbers and statistics made our eyes roll back into our heads at several points - Kerry has to be sparing with statistics, instead of barfing numbers forward like a malfunctioning stock ticker tape. His remark about the Cheney's daughter was also very ill-considered. This was Kerry's least effective debate, especially since on domestic issues he as a Senator has a record that can be attacked, whereas on foreign policy he has no burden to produce results as a member of a legislative body. Bush seemed somewhat awkward early on, looking for his footing - if we didn't know better we'd have said he'd taken a snortful before coming out. He didn't strongly address some jobs questions - even a throway line about making America the best place to do business with lower taxes and regulation would have sufficed. But the debate closed far stronger for the President - who surely connected with women talking with genuine and almost teary affection for his wife. Kerry uncorked an uncomfortable funny line - and to his credit, he was willing to be a little self-depricating - but then didn't seem to acknowledge his wife much more at all, almost leaving her as just the lady he goes on ski trips with.

The debates overall helped each candidate survive - Kerry, who had almost bottomed out from a horrible September, came in with his strongest performance against the President's weakest to revitalize his campaign and look his best when the President looked his worst. The President by closing strong was able to regain both the post-debate initiative, as well as remind voters of the likable man behind the sometimes inflexible resolve.

And for the record - this is the third debate where Kerry has had to defend the term, "global test". The President in fact did a double whammy on this, combining for the first time Kerry's opposition to the Gulf War in 1991 to his "global test" remark from the first debate. His repeated statements that he would never cede authority for action to a third party is assuredly true, but in doubt practically, and his lines are starting to sound more like protestations than compelling statements. Just remember when we said when we scored the first debate...

Tune in to the final episode on November 2nd for Survivor: White House Edition...

Posted by MEC2 at October 14, 2004 08:58 AM