July 19, 2005
Masterstroke
Bush gets everything he wants, nothing he doesn't...
When the President announced John Roberts name on Monday night, he didn't announce a nomination, he announced the next Associate Justice.
With Rehnquist apparently only leaving the court in a pine box, this will be the only nomination this summer. And with the selection of Roberts, Bush has all his bases covered. Flout conventional wisdom of choosing a woman to replace O'Connor? Check. Pick a conservative justice to appease the conservative base? Check. Pick a nominee the Senate is going to be loathe to reject? Check. Pick a nominee that seems to be precisely the kind of man Bush himself is drawn to? Double check.
Roberts has strong personal assets. Speaking extemporaneously seems a strong suit. Roberts and his wife seemed to strike an almost throwback appearance to 70's whitebread middle America - during cuts between he and his wife, I thought my television had dialed 1973. Roberts has very strong intellectual credentials, and general approval from his peers of all political stripes. Expect his strong intellect to come through at his confirmation hearing, to the benefit of himself and the President.
This nominee will have 55 votes from Senate Republicans. We know that some Democrats will oppose his nomination - Chuck Schumer didn't like him the first time around. And he won't again. (UPDATE: Read all about that here). The Democrat playbook here is going to be to exact a political cost from Bush, make him expend energy supporting the pick, as well as re-establish their bona fides with hard core abortion rights advocates that frankly don't have anywhere else to go regardless. But this is not a nominee they can outright defeat. Some have noted that he was approved on voice affirmation and this conveys some sense of a concensus pick, but this is not an accurate reading - had a recorded vote occurred, a solid 20+ Democrat Senators would have opposed him.
And fillibustering is flirting with disaster - the American public doens't really notice when you fillibuster a Circuit Court judge. They do notice when there are only 8 black robes instead of 9 on the first Monday in October. Democrats would be best served to simply use harassing tactics, not attempt to dynamite the tracks with a fillibuster. Not only will they lose, they will do so spectacularly, and frame an issue that will hurt them for the midterms in 2006.
By fighting the good fight, Democrats can energize their base for the midterms. By trying to derail the entire process, they will only succeed in tying themselves to the tracks...
Posted by MEC2 at July 19, 2005 08:55 PM | TrackBack