February 04, 2008

Number Crunching

Doing tricky math, so you don't have to...

Having done advanced algorithmic gymnastics in our head, here is how we think the delegate count will shape up as of tomorrow:

McCain - win 629 delegates
Total - 722

Romney - win 308 delegates
Total - 385

That lead is insurmountable. With the big delegate winner-take-all prizes in New York, New Jersey, and Arizona, that's 206 off the top. Missouri is also WTA and as a fairly moderate bellweather (and is not a closed primary), that's another 58 delegates that go to only the statewide winner. Ironically, states where Romney is performing well, such as California and Massachusetts, will distribute their delegates among the candidates - even were Romney to win in California, he'd likely only clear some 15 more delegates than McCain. Romney cannot trade delegates, he must clear and shut out in order to gain ground.

There simply does not appear to be a path for Romney to pick up the delegates needed to derail McCain. After Tuesday, McCain can lose almost 2 to 1 and still win.

Tomorrow is Thunderdome. Two men enter. One man leave.

Posted by MEC2 at February 4, 2008 06:25 PM
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